Reasons to be cheerful

In the complex markets in which most businesses now operate, organisational memory is a powerful asset. We may not appreciate the guy at work who says, "It'll never work. We've tried that before," but, his experience is valuable to learn the lessons of our collective past. Without him, we run the risk of running up against the same old barriers. The flip side to this, of course, is that the very same veteran can inform us of what has worked in the past and how it all plays out if you're around long enough to see it through. Allow me to make this vague business lecture specific: Leicester Tigers have the biggest fan-base; highest regular attendances; largest rugby-dedicated stadium; most densely populated trophy cabinet; a multitude of players in England's Elite Player Squad, and; the most successful 10-year record in the Premiership, and yet, they sit a lowly 10th in the table. Is this a crisis? Critical fans have pointed to the club's recruitment policy in which they seem to close their eyes, put their fingers in their ears and pretend that the World Cup and Six Nations don't exist; the lack of depth in the squad; the reluctance to blood younger players earlier; fitness levels, and; the apparent vanishing of the traditional Tigers mental resolve. Whilst there is some validity to these claims, history tells us that Leicester's current performance is entirely consistent with top teams in a World Cup year. In 2007, a record of 13 wins and 9 losses was enough to qualify for the play-offs. In 2003, a record of 14 wins and 8 losses was enough and after 8 games Leicester had won the same number of games as they have now. Nine or ten wins with a few try bonus points could see Leicester home and 7 of their remaining league fixture are at home. Leicester are 20 points adrift from Harlequins at the top of the table, but what will Quins get for their troubles if they remain there at the end of the season? A home semi-final in the play-offs - that's all. And what are Leicester's last five results at The Stoop? Four wins, one draw, no losses. Sometimes that guy at work is there to tell us that things can be done, after all. Since the World Cup players returned, Leicester have smashed Gloucester, Sale and London Irish (the latter game providing a freak draw). Should they prepare better for the absence of these players? I'll remind you again of the play-off format of this league and the fact that this same recruitment policy has seen the club reach seven consecutive finals - a stage of the season in which all of these players are then available. Even if you chose to discard world-class English internationals like Cole, Flood, Youngs, Croft and M.Tuilagi it would not make sense financially to bring in like-for-like non-English replacements of the same calibre and forfeit the £750k in compensation the club receives from the RFU, even if it can't be used for salaries. Yes, Saracens can do it, but they are operating at a loss year-on-year and may soon find some of their top players like Farrell, Barrett and Goode in the EPS too. Leicester have top English talent, win trophies and make a profit doing it. That's not a business model you want to change after eight games of a World Cup season. Of the players who deputised during the World Cup, you cannot truly judge the likes of T.Youngs, Brookes, Kitchener, and Ford from playing in combinations that will probably never occur again (at least not for another four years). Let us judge these players when they have played in combinations that reflect a recognisable Leicester first XV, not a Development XV with loanees from Nottingham. To reinforce this, look at the strong post-World Cup performances of T.Youngs and Harrison in particular. As for fitness and mental resolve, the former is often cited when a lead changes hands late in a game, but I find it hard to believe that with all the resources the club direct towards fitness and conditioning that there is genuinely cause for concern. The latter, on the other hand, goes further to explain the disastorous London Irish result, but then it is to be expected that a side lying 10th with three straight losses in the league at home gets the jitters as 80 minutes approaches. Leicester have seemingly sent their mental resolve down the M1 to Vicarage Road, but the encouraging thing it is that, unlike a more fundamental weakness, if the results return then so too should the resolve. Let's use our organisational memory, Leicester have been in similar positions to this before and have strung together the sort of results needed to get back into the play-offs before too. A remarkable Harlequins start aside, none of the other clubs in mid-table have made the sort strides required to leave Leicester trailing in their wake. A play-off place is still a perfectly realistic target.